A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
